Cone of Uncertainty

by Joanie Butman

Hurricane season is upon us with Fiona claiming Puerto Rico as the first victim last week. Meteorologists are busier than ever tracking storms in order to calculate landfalls. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-average hurricane activity this year. Predicting nature, however, is an inexact science, so the analysts use something called the cone of uncertainty to hedge their landfall projections. It’s a large cone-shaped swath of land indicating potential landing sites.

Anyone who lives in susceptible areas knows that hurricane preparedness is essential along with evacuation plans. You do not want to be caught unaware in a hurricane, and with current technology there’s no reason to. Of course, there are always those that ignore evacuation warnings, stubbornly determined to ‘ride out’ the storm. Unfortunately, others are then put in harm’s way going to rescue them.

Life itself is a cone of uncertainty. If there is one absolute that everyone can agree on it’s that life is unpredictable. The only preparedness strategy I know of is to nurture a relationship with the only One able to calm any storm. As inaccurate as it sometimes is, meteorologists can try to predict the path of an approaching storm. Personal tragedy, however, arrives with no warning and no evacuation plan. You simply can’t outrun life’s hurricane seasons. Best to be prepared beforehand. Is there anyone who hasn’t, at some point, felt like that person sitting on their roof with flood waters rising, hoping to be rescued? You may be sitting in a doctor’s office or on the receiving end of a dreaded phone call, but the instinct is the same – a divine S.O.S.

Since we live in a cone of uncertainty, it would behoove us to build up our storm preparedness by developing a relationship with Jesus who is capable of foreseeing what’s in your path – a Divine Storm Tracker of sorts. As you travel through life together, He is always preparing you for what’s coming next. He doesn’t prevent storms, but He can keep you calm while they rage around you – but only if you choose to seek His help.

There’s an old joke you’ve probably heard before, but it seems particularly appropriate:

A fellow was stuck on his rooftop in a flood. He was praying to God for help. Soon a man in a rowboat came by and the fellow shouted to the man on the roof, "Jump in, I can save you." The stranded fellow shouted back, "No, it's OK, I'm praying to God and He is going to save me." So the rowboat went on.

Then a motorboat came by. The fellow in the motorboat shouted, "Jump in, I can save you." To this the stranded man said, "No thanks, I'm praying to God and He is going to save me. I have faith." So the motorboat went on.

Then a helicopter came by and the pilot shouted down, "Grab this rope and I will lift you to safety." To this the stranded man again replied, "No thanks, I'm praying to God and He is going to save me. I have faith." So the helicopter reluctantly flew away.

Soon the water rose above the rooftop and the man drowned. He went to Heaven. He finally got his chance to discuss this whole situation with God, at which point he exclaimed, "I had faith in You but You didn't save me, You let me drown. I don't understand why!" To this God replied, "I sent you a rowboat, a motorboat, and a helicopter, what more did you expect?"

Most of us have more sense, but it’s amazing how far we’ll sometimes go before seeking God’s help. We are fixers. We look for quick solutions - and not always in the right places. But some things in life can’t be solved. They can only be endured.

Whether it’s fixable or not, riding out the storm with God is the only option for me. With His wisdom and guidance, He helps me discern the best available options. The same way Jesus calmed the storm in the gospel of Mark, He is able to calm anything that’s unsettling you – and there’s plenty of squalls threatening our serenity these days. Even with the world seemingly spinning out of control, we can choose to, “Be still and know that I am God.